Archive for the ‘polling’ Category

Obama 49.0%, McCain 44.7% Says Zogby October 28; Rasmussen Says Little Change in Swing States

October 28, 2008

UTICA, New York – The race for President of the United States continued to tighten, as both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain lost ground in a contest that is now a four–point game, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Obama lost 0.9 points and now stands at 49.0% in the tracking poll, while McCain lost 0.4 points and now stands at 44.7% support in a head–to–head match–up. Another 6.3% said they were undecided, up from 4.9% the day before.

McCain wins 87% of the Republican support, and Obama 84% of the Democratic support, and each candidate wins 11% of the opposing party’s support. Obama continues to lead among independent voters – his advantage now stands at 16 points, 51% to 35%.

McCain leads among men, 48% to 45%, while Obama leads among women by a larger 53% to 42% margin. Among white voters, McCain leads by a 53% to 41% margin. Among Hispanics, Obama leads, 66% to 28%, and among African Americans, Obama wins 88% to McCain’s 9%.

Week Four


Tracking Poll






Others/Not sure


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Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia shows some modest movement in a few states, but the overall dynamic of the race is little changed and still favors Barack Obama.

In fact, a review of all Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling conducted in October shows a race that has remained quite stable despite the frenetic pace of campaigning, massive amounts of campaign ads, and daily media coverage of the latest campaign tactic or gaffe.

In Missouri, Obama is up by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. That’s the strongest showing yet for McCain in polling conducted during October and comes just after his weakest showing of the year when he trailed by five a week ago. However, as we noted at the time, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state. Despite these ups and downs, Obama has held a very slight lead—from one to five points–in all four Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Missouri polls conducted during October.

In Ohio, it’s Obama 49% McCain 45%. That’s an improvement for Obama compared to a week ago when McCain led by two. In the Buckeye State, Obama’s support has been between 47% and 49% in each of the past five weekly Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls. This is the first time that McCain’s support has fallen below the 47% level since weekly polling of the state began in early September.

In Florida, Obama is also back on top this week, 51% to 47%. A week ago, the two candidates were essentially even but the current results are very similar to those from polls earlier in October.

In North Carolina, McCain attracts 49% of the vote while Obama earns 48%. This is the third time in four weeks that the candidates have been within a single point of each other. Last week, Obama was up by three.

In Colorado, it’s Obama by four, 50% to 46%. Obama has been at 50% or 51% in each October Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll of Colorado voters while McCain has been at 45% or 46% each time.

Stability reigns in Virginia as well where Obama leads 51% to 47%. As in Colorado, the results for each candidate have been virtually identical in four consecutive Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls of Virginia voters.

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Zogby October 18: Obama 48%; McCain 44%

October 18, 2008

UTICA, New York – The race for President remains at equilibrium, 12 days into the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll, which shows Democrat Barack Obama winning 48.3% support, compared to 44.4% for Republican John McCain.

US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama greets supporters ... 
Front runner US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama greets supporters during a rally at Roanoke Convention Center in Roanoke, Virginia. Obama’s presidential campaign has accused rival John McCain of using a false crusade against voter fraud to suppress legitimate votes in a growing spat over ballots ahead of the November 4 poll.(AFP/Emmanuel Dunand)

Seven-point-three percent of the likely voters surveyed said they remain undecided.

Obama lost four-tenths of a point from yesterday’s report, while McCain gained six-tenths of a point. It was the second consecutive day in which Obama’s numbers slipped and McCain’s numbers increased.

Despite two presidential debates and a continuing worldwide financial markets meltdown that occurred and intensified during the polling over the past two weeks, support for the candidates has remained remarkably stable. Obama has increased his support just 0.6 points, while McCain’s support has slipped 0.9 points since Oct. 6.

Right now, Obama’s 3.9-point advantage over McCain is about in the middle of the range we have seen over the past 12 days of this report – Obama has led by as little as 1.9 points and by as much as 6.2 points.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a rally in ... 
Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a rally in Melbourne, Florida, on October 17. Barack Obama’s campaign accused rival McCain of using a false crusade against voter fraud to suppress legitimate votes Friday as battles over who ought to be able to cast a ballot in the November 4 election intensified.(AFP/Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla)

This three-day rolling average of polling now includes nearly two complete 24-hour cycles conducted after the final debate on Wednesday, but the debate appears to have had only a little affect on likely voters nationwide. McCain has benefited more than Obama.                

The tracking poll includes 1,209 likely voters across the country who were surveyed between Oct. 15-17, 2008, at the rate of about 400 per day. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

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Poll Says McCain Attacks on Obama Not Effective

October 15, 2008

The McCain campaign’s recent angry tone and sharply personal attacks on Senator Barack Obama appear to have backfired and tarnished Senator John McCain more than their intended target, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll has found.
Above: Some voters in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll were disappointed by John McCain’s attacks and running mate choice. The poll found Barack Obama was supported by majorities of men and independents. Photo: Richard Perry/The New York Times, left; Damon Winter/The New York Times 
After several weeks in which the McCain campaign unleashed a series of strong political attacks on Mr. Obama, trying to tie him to a former 1960s radical, among other things, the poll found that more voters see Mr. McCain as waging a negative campaign than Mr. Obama. Six in 10 voters surveyed said that Mr. McCain had spent more time attacking Mr. Obama than explaining what he would do as president; by about the same number, voters said Mr. Obama was spending more of his time explaining than attacking.

Over all, the poll found that if the election were held today, 53 percent of those determined to be probable voters said they would vote for Mr. Obama and 39 percent said they would vote for Mr. McCain.

The findings come as the race enters its final three weeks, with the two candidates scheduled to hold their third and last debate on Wednesday night, and as separate polls in critical swing states that could decide the election give Mr. Obama a growing edge. But wide gaps in polls have historically tended to narrow in the closing weeks of the race.

Voters who said their opinions of Mr. Obama had changed recently were twice as likely to say they had grown more favorable as to say they had worsened. And voters who said that their views of Mr. McCain had changed were three times more likely to say that they had worsened than to say they had improved.

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The Election: Can the Polls Be Trusted or Will Obama Become Surprised?

October 12, 2008

By Kate Zernike
The New York Times

THREE weeks to Election Day and polls project a victory, possibly a big one, for

Barack Obama.
Yet everywhere, anxious Democrats wring their hands. They’ve seen this Lucy-and-the-football routine before, and they’re just waiting for their ball to be snatched away, the foiled Charlie Browns again. Remember how the exit polls in 2004 predicted President Kerry?
The anxiety is more acute this year, because Senator Obama is the first African-American major-party presidential nominee. And even pollsters say they can’t be sure how accurately polls capture people’s feelings about race, or how forthcoming Americans are in talking about a black candidate.

In recent days, nervous Obama supporters have traded worry about a survey — widely disputed by pollsters yet voraciously consumed by the politically obsessed — that concluded racial bias would cost Mr. Obama six percentage points in the final outcome. He is, of course, about six points ahead in current polls. See? He’s going to lose.

If he does, it wouldn’t be the first time that polls have overstated support for an African-American candidate. Since 1982, people have talked about the Bradley effect, where even last-minute polls predict a wide margin of victory, yet the black candidate goes on to lose, or win in a squeaker. (In the case that lent the phenomenon its name, Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles, lost his race for governor, the assumption being that voters lied to pollsters about their support for an African-American.)

But pollsters and political scientists say concern about a Bradley effect — some call it a Wilder effect or a Dinkins effect, and plenty call it a theory in search of data — is misplaced. It obscures what they argue is the more important point: there are plenty of ways that race complicates polling. Considered alone or in combination, these factors could produce an unforeseen Obama landslide with surprise victories in the South, a stunningly large Obama loss, or a recount-thin margin. In a year that has already turned expectations upside down, it is hard to completely reassure the fretters.

Associated Press, top; Greg Gibson/Agence France-Presse

MEN OF EFFECT Former Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles, top, and former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder of Virginia, above, both lent their names to a voting phenomenon peculiar to black candidates. Mr. Bradley lost in a close race for governor, while Mr. Wilder won in a close race. Polls predicted that both candidates would win by large margins.




U.S. Concern Over Economy Is Highest in Years

February 4, 2008

By Michael Abramowitz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, February 4, 2008; Page A01

Public views of the national economy are now more negative than at any point in nearly 15 years, and few people believe that the kind of stimulus plan being devised by President Bush and Congress is enough to stave off or soften a recession, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

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