Archive for the ‘poll’ Category

Most Americans Believe Obama Will Fix Economy

November 11, 2008

In one of the economy’s darkest hours in decades, it looks as if people are taking Barack Obama up on his exhortations for hope and change.

Seven in 10, or 72 percent, voice confidence the president-elect will make the changes needed to revive the stalling economy, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll released Tuesday. Underscoring how widely the public is counting on its new leader, 44 percent of Republicans joined nearly all Democrats and most independents in expressing that belief.

Associated Press

The poll shows that faith in Obama is even broader, at least for now. Sixty-eight percent said they think that when he takes office in January, the new president will be able to enact the policies he pushed during his presidential campaign.

People signaled a willingness to wait on one of the keynote items of his agenda — tax cuts. Only about one in three, or 36 percent, said they wanted Obama to make income-tax cuts a top priority when he takes office, and even fewer wanted higher taxes on the rich to be a primary goal.

Instead, 84 percent said strengthening the economy should be a top-tier priority. Eighty percent also named creating jobs as a No. 1 order of business.

Majorities in both parties said those issues should be top priorities, though Democrats were a bit likelier than Republicans to say so.

With Obama ending the GOP‘s eight-year hold on the White House under President Bush and about to become the first black president, the AP-GfK poll showed three quarters saying the election made them feel hopeful, six in 10 feeling proud and half expressing excitement.

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Russian Opinion Polls Say Medvedev, Putin Drop

November 3, 2008

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Support for Dmitry Medvedev fell slightly in Russia, according to a poll by the Yury Levada Analytical Center. 76 per cent of respondents approve of their president’s performance, down seven points since September.

In addition, 83 per cent of respondents approve of the way Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin is handling his job, down five points in a month.

Russian voters renewed the State Duma in December 2007. United Russia (YR)—whose candidate list was headed by Putin—secured 64.1 per cent of the vote and 315 of the legislature’s 450 seats. On that same month, Putin endorsed Dmitry Medvedev as a presidential candidate, and Medvedev said it would be of the “utmost importance” to have Putin as prime minister.

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev speaks in his video blog ... 
Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev speaks in his video blog about the main topics of his state of the nation address, at Gorki residence outside Moscow, November 2, 2008.(RIA Novosti/Kremlin/Mikhail Klimentyev/Reuters)

In March, Medvedev easily won Russia’s presidential election with 70.28 per cent of the vote. In May, Medvedev was sworn in as president. His nomination of Putin as prime minister was confirmed by the State Duma in a 392-56 vote.

On Oct. 27, Putin announced that Russia has no plans to isolate its economy from the rest of the world as a reaction to the global financial crisis, adding “Of course we must take today’s realities into account, but strategically, isolationism is not our choice. Our choice is building Russia further into the global economy. (…) We advocate consistently removing barriers to foreign trade and forming transparent rules of the game in the world economy and finance.”

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Medvedev To Give “State of the Nation”

By Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters

The world financial crisis and the consequences of the war in Georgia will be the main topics of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev‘s first state of the nation speech this week, the Kremlin chief said on Sunday.

Speaking in a video blog posted on the website, Medvedev said he would deliver the speech — a closely watched overview of Kremlin policy — on Wednesday.

“The crisis started in one of the biggest countries, the United States of America, and has unfortunately spread over the whole planet and every country is having to search for answers to it,” Medvedev said in the blog.

Russian equity and bond markets have tumbled over the past three months as investors dumped Russian assets on concerns the credit crisis could stall a 10-year economic boom and undermine economic stability.

Russian officials say there will be no rouble devaluation and that the state’s bailout packages will calm markets and help indebted Russian companies refinance their debts.

But investors are looking carefully to see what Medvedev will say about measures to tackle the crisis, which has hammered confidence in the domestic banking system and raised fears of nationalizations.

“Medvedev will certainly seek to deliver a message of calm for the domestic markets and to boost public confidence in both the rouble and the country’s banking system,” said Chris Weafer, a strategist at UralSib investment bank in Moscow.

“These are the two biggest priorities for his government right now,” Weafer said.


Medvedev said a major part of the speech would address the consequences of the war in Georgia, which is seen by Kremlin officials as a turning point for relations with the West.

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McCain “Within Margin of Error” (Zogby: November 1)

November 1, 2008

Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Almost two days worth of the polling — or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama’s 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

Pollster John Zogby: “Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. “Obama’s lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama’s good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on.”

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U.S. Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain listens ... 
U.S. Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain listens to his wife Cindy (L) at a campaign rally in Hanoverton, Ohio October 31, 2008. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

Growing Doubts on Palin Take a Toll, Poll Finds

October 31, 2008

A  growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

By Michael Cooper and Dalia Sussman
The New York Times
All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.

And in a possible indication that the choice of Ms. Palin has hurt Mr. McCain’s image, voters said they had much more confidence in Mr. Obama to pick qualified people for his administration than they did in Mr. McCain.

Republican vice-presidential nominee Alaska Governor Sarah Palin ... 
Republican vice-presidential nominee Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain stand onstage together at a campaign rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania October 28, 2008.(Brian Snyder/Reuters)

After nearly two years of campaigning, a pair of hotly contested nominating battles, a series of debates and an avalanche of advertisements, the nationwide poll found the contours of the race hardening in the last days before the election on Tuesday. Twelve percent of the voters surveyed said they had already voted. These were among the findings:

Mr. Obama is maintaining his lead, with 51 percent of likely voters supporting him and 40 percent supporting Mr. McCain in a head-to-head matchup.

Some perceptions of race are changing, with a marked increase in the number of people who say they believe that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in America today.

Mr. McCain’s focus on taxes, including his talk about Joe the Plumber, seems to be having some effect, as a growing number of voters now say Mr. McCain would not raise their taxes.

Eighty-nine percent of people view the economy negatively, and 85 percent think the country is on the wrong track.

Mr. Obama continues to have a significant advantage on key issues like the economy, health care and the war in Iraq.

The survey found that opinions of Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain had hardened considerably, as 9 out of 10 voters who said they had settled on a candidate said their minds were made up, and a growing number of them called it “extremely important” that their candidate win the election. Roughly half of each candidate’s supporters said they were “scared” of what the other candidate would do if elected. Just 4 percent of voters were undecided, and when they were pressed to say whom they leaned toward, the shape of the race remained essentially the same.

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Rasmussen Poll: Obama 50% McCain 47%; October 29, 2008

October 29, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24 (see trends). One percent (1%) of voters prefer a third-party option and 2% are undecided.

Tracking Poll results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 54% (see trends).

State polling released yesterday showed Obama leading in Nevada and Pennsylvania while McCain had the advantage in Arkansas and Mississippi. Earlier this week, state polls were released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, and Arizona. Rasmussen Reports

AP Poll: Obama leads or tied in 8 crucial states

October 29, 2008

Barack Obama now leads in four states won by President Bush in 2004 and is essentially tied with John McCain in two other Republican red states, according to new AP-GfK battleground polling.

The results help explain why the Democrat is pressing his money and manpower advantages in a slew of traditionally GOP states, hoping not just for a win but a transcendent victory that remakes the nation’s political map. McCain is scrambling to defend states where he wouldn’t even be campaigning if the race were closer.

BY Ron Fournier And Trevor Tompson, Associated Press Writers

Less than a week before Election Day, the AP-GfK polls show Obama winning among early voters, favored on almost every issue, benefiting from the country’s sour mood and widely viewed as the winning candidate by voters in eight crucial states — Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

“If you believe in miracles,” said GOP consultant Joe Gaylord of Arlington, Va., “you still believe in McCain.”

Despite a mounting chorus of Republicans predicting their nominee’s demise, McCain aides insist their internal surveys show victory is still within reach.

Indeed, polls are mere snapshots of highly fluid campaigns, and this race has been unusually volatile. McCain was written off prematurely last year, and Obama seemed poised for victory in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary just before Hillary Rodham Clinton thumped him.

Even this close to Election Day, racial tensions and….

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Obama 49.0%, McCain 44.7% Says Zogby October 28; Rasmussen Says Little Change in Swing States

October 28, 2008

UTICA, New York – The race for President of the United States continued to tighten, as both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain lost ground in a contest that is now a four–point game, the latest Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Obama lost 0.9 points and now stands at 49.0% in the tracking poll, while McCain lost 0.4 points and now stands at 44.7% support in a head–to–head match–up. Another 6.3% said they were undecided, up from 4.9% the day before.

McCain wins 87% of the Republican support, and Obama 84% of the Democratic support, and each candidate wins 11% of the opposing party’s support. Obama continues to lead among independent voters – his advantage now stands at 16 points, 51% to 35%.

McCain leads among men, 48% to 45%, while Obama leads among women by a larger 53% to 42% margin. Among white voters, McCain leads by a 53% to 41% margin. Among Hispanics, Obama leads, 66% to 28%, and among African Americans, Obama wins 88% to McCain’s 9%.

Week Four


Tracking Poll






Others/Not sure


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Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia shows some modest movement in a few states, but the overall dynamic of the race is little changed and still favors Barack Obama.

In fact, a review of all Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling conducted in October shows a race that has remained quite stable despite the frenetic pace of campaigning, massive amounts of campaign ads, and daily media coverage of the latest campaign tactic or gaffe.

In Missouri, Obama is up by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. That’s the strongest showing yet for McCain in polling conducted during October and comes just after his weakest showing of the year when he trailed by five a week ago. However, as we noted at the time, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state. Despite these ups and downs, Obama has held a very slight lead—from one to five points–in all four Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Missouri polls conducted during October.

In Ohio, it’s Obama 49% McCain 45%. That’s an improvement for Obama compared to a week ago when McCain led by two. In the Buckeye State, Obama’s support has been between 47% and 49% in each of the past five weekly Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls. This is the first time that McCain’s support has fallen below the 47% level since weekly polling of the state began in early September.

In Florida, Obama is also back on top this week, 51% to 47%. A week ago, the two candidates were essentially even but the current results are very similar to those from polls earlier in October.

In North Carolina, McCain attracts 49% of the vote while Obama earns 48%. This is the third time in four weeks that the candidates have been within a single point of each other. Last week, Obama was up by three.

In Colorado, it’s Obama by four, 50% to 46%. Obama has been at 50% or 51% in each October Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll of Colorado voters while McCain has been at 45% or 46% each time.

Stability reigns in Virginia as well where Obama leads 51% to 47%. As in Colorado, the results for each candidate have been virtually identical in four consecutive Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls of Virginia voters.

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Sarah Palin dragging down Republican ticket: polls

October 23, 2008

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Embarrassing revelations about her costly campaign wardrobe and bloopers about the vice president’s job description are raising fresh fears that Sarah Palin is dragging down the Republican ticket.

New polls showed Wednesday that seven weeks after John McCain plucked the Alaska governor from political obscurity to be his running mate in the November 4 elections, Palin is seen as an increasing liability for Republicans.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that Americans are less and less convinced she is worthy to serve as the country’s number-two leader.

“Her numbers have plummeted in our poll … what’s more 55 percent think she’s unqualified to serve as president if the need arises, which is a troublesome number given McCain’s age,” said NBC political director Chuck Todd.

The poll also puts the 72-year-old McCain 10 points behind his Democratic rival Barack Obama, and says that 47 percent of those surveyed viewed Palin negatively.

It confirmed the findings of an ABC/Washington Post poll released earlier this month which found that six in 10 voters saw Palin, 44, as lacking the experience to be an effective president.

“A third are now less likely to vote for McCain because of her,” the Post added.

After being found guilty of abusing her power as governor in the so-called “troopergate” scandal over the firing of her ex-brother-in-law, Palin now faces a second probe over whether she violated ethics rules in the affair.

A spokesman said Palin, the first woman to be picked to serve on a Republican ticket, had requested this subsequent inquiry, branding the first probe a “political witch-hunt.”

Then on Tuesday the Politico website caused a stir by publishing financial records of the Republican National Committee showing it has spent more than 150,000 dollars on clothes for Palin since late August.

McCain-Palin campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt slammed the media for focusing on “pantsuits and blouses” during the country’s hard economic times, saying the clothes were always intended to go to charity after the campaign.

But the New York Times Thursday wrote the wardrobe “joined the ranks of symbolic political excess” and reported that many Republicans “expressed consternation publicly and privately that the shopping spree …. would compromise Ms Palin’s standing as Senator McCain‘s chief emissary to working-class voters.”

Palin was also lambasted this week for failing to correctly spell out the vice president’s role on several occasions, including during the vice presidential debate with her Democratic rival Joseph Biden.

Responding during one television interview to a question sent in by an elementary school pupil about what the vice-president does, Palin again overstated the White House second-in-command’s powers.

“They’re in charge of the United States Senate, so if they want to they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes,” she said.

The comment directly contradicted the separation-of-powers principle enshrined in the US constitution, under which the vice-president as president of the Senate has a casting vote in the event of a tie, but takes no other role.

McCain has staunchly defended his running mate against the slew of attacks, stressing she will be a valuable asset in his campaign goal of ridding Washington of political corruption.

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Zogby October 18: Obama 48%; McCain 44%

October 18, 2008

UTICA, New York – The race for President remains at equilibrium, 12 days into the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll, which shows Democrat Barack Obama winning 48.3% support, compared to 44.4% for Republican John McCain.

US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama greets supporters ... 
Front runner US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama greets supporters during a rally at Roanoke Convention Center in Roanoke, Virginia. Obama’s presidential campaign has accused rival John McCain of using a false crusade against voter fraud to suppress legitimate votes in a growing spat over ballots ahead of the November 4 poll.(AFP/Emmanuel Dunand)

Seven-point-three percent of the likely voters surveyed said they remain undecided.

Obama lost four-tenths of a point from yesterday’s report, while McCain gained six-tenths of a point. It was the second consecutive day in which Obama’s numbers slipped and McCain’s numbers increased.

Despite two presidential debates and a continuing worldwide financial markets meltdown that occurred and intensified during the polling over the past two weeks, support for the candidates has remained remarkably stable. Obama has increased his support just 0.6 points, while McCain’s support has slipped 0.9 points since Oct. 6.

Right now, Obama’s 3.9-point advantage over McCain is about in the middle of the range we have seen over the past 12 days of this report – Obama has led by as little as 1.9 points and by as much as 6.2 points.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a rally in ... 
Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a rally in Melbourne, Florida, on October 17. Barack Obama’s campaign accused rival McCain of using a false crusade against voter fraud to suppress legitimate votes Friday as battles over who ought to be able to cast a ballot in the November 4 election intensified.(AFP/Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla)

This three-day rolling average of polling now includes nearly two complete 24-hour cycles conducted after the final debate on Wednesday, but the debate appears to have had only a little affect on likely voters nationwide. McCain has benefited more than Obama.                

The tracking poll includes 1,209 likely voters across the country who were surveyed between Oct. 15-17, 2008, at the rate of about 400 per day. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

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Too Late for a McCain Comeback?

October 17, 2008

With less than three weeks to go, CNN’s latest poll of polls shows Sen. McCain trailing Sen. Obama by 8 points nationwide — a mid-October deficit that only one presidential hopeful has overcome to win the White House in the last 50 years: Ronald Reagan.

Bt Andrew Mooney

(Oct. 16) – Sen. John McCain likes to say he enjoys being the underdog. After all, this is the relentless candidate who somehow managed to capture his party’s nomination after the political world left him for dead in the summer of 2007.
But even as he spends the campaign homestretch reminding wary Republicans of his miraculous comeback last year, history suggests it may simply be too late.
Both publicly and privately of course, neither the candidates nor their aides are ready to say the race is over.

On Thursday morning, Sen. Barack Obama warned supporters not to get “cocky,” while a few hours later McCain pledged to Pennsylvania voters he would erase Obama’s lead by Election Day.
But with less than three weeks to go, CNN’s latest poll of polls shows McCain trailing Obama by 8 points nationwide — a mid-October deficit that only one presidential hopeful has overcome to win the White House in the last 50 years.
In the 1980 presidential election, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan trailed President Jimmy Carter by 8 points in a late October Gallup poll. A mere 10 days after that survey was conducted, Reagan defeated the incumbent president by nearly 3 percentage points, sealing one of the biggest turnarounds in the history of American presidential politics.
But if 2008 is at all like 1980, it’s Obama who is Ronald Reagan, not McCain.

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