Archive for the ‘outlook’ Category

Playing Frisbee on a Precipice: Seriousness of American Politicans in Doubt During Economic Crisis

October 10, 2008

By Peggy Noonan
The Wall Street Journal

There are 3½ weeks to go. Life, and political campaigns, can turn on a dime. But I think it just turned on a lot of dimes.

There was an October surprise, and it has all but certainly decided the race. On the left, a smug triumphalism is setting in. On the right, anger rises: the finger pointing is about to begin. In parts and pockets of the middle, we have Americans who aren’t thinking about politics because they’re busy trying to imagine what a modern depression would look like and wondering, for the first time ever, if it is possible that they may wind up living in their cars.

Read the rest:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359863551021415.html

Economists Expect Crisis to Deepen

October 10, 2008

By Phil Izzo
The Wall Street Journal

The U.S. economy has sunk into a recession and government action is critical to stem the damage, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.

“We’re in the middle of a very dark tunnel,” said Brian Fabbri of BNP Paribas, referring to the worsening credit crunch. “Each day we see another crack in the system.”

Those cracks are quickly adding up. On average, the 52 economists surveyed now expect U.S. gross domestic product to contract in the third and fourth quarters of this year, as well as the first quarter of 2009.

This is the first time that survey forecasts for those periods have turned negative. If those predictions bear out, it would mark the first time U.S. GDP — the total value of goods and services produced — has contracted for three consecutive quarters in more than a half century. Economists put the odds of recession in the next 12 months at 89%, up from 60% in last month’s survey.

It is a challenging scenario for the next president, as the election moves into the homestretch. Either Sen. John McCain or Sen. Barack Obama likely will face an economy in the midst of recession on Inauguration Day, even if the credit crisis begins to ease. The new administration will have to get up to speed quickly, taking over the largest government intervention since the Great Depression.

Read the rest:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122349368554816267.html

Consumer confidence at lowest since 2002

March 7, 2008
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON – Confidence in the economy dropped to a new low as worries about a possible recession, persistent problems in the housing and credit markets and lofty energy prices put people in a more gloomy mind-set.

According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence sank to a mark of 33.1 in early March, down from 48.5 in February. The new reading was the worst since the index began in 2002 and surpassed the previous low reached in February.

“The U.S. consumer is definitely in full defensive mode,” said T.J. Marta, a fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

Read the rest:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080307/ap_on_bi_ge/
consumer_confidence;_ylt=AkUIO23vd
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