Archive for the ‘Obama lead’ Category

Obama has 4-point lead on McCain: Zogby

October 15, 2008

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
October 15, 2008

HEMPSTEAD, New York (Reuters) – Democrat Barack Obama has a 4-point national lead over Republican John McCain as the White House rivals head into their final debate, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 44 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest four-day tracking poll, down slightly from Obama’s 6-point advantage on Tuesday. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Above: John Zogby

Obama’s lead in the poll has remained stable, drifting between 4 and 6 percentage points for the last week.

“It’s not over, but it’s not moving a lot,” pollster John Zogby said. “There does not seem to be a dramatic shift going on.”

Obama and McCain meet in their third and final debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, on Wednesday night, giving McCain one last chance to reshape a presidential race that appears to be tilting toward Obama with less than three weeks before the November 4 election.

Some other national polls in the last few days have shown Obama with a double-digit lead on McCain, fueled by perceptions Obama would do a better job managing the faltering economy and unhappiness with McCain’s attacks on him over the past week.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows Obama with an 8-point edge among independents, down sharply from Tuesday, and an 8-point lead among women, two key swing voting blocs.

Both candidates have solidified their base support, winning nearly nine of every 10 votes from members of their own party.

McCain, 72, an Arizona senator, leads narrowly among men and by 14 points among whites. The former Navy pilot and prisoner of war in Vietnam reclaimed a slight lead among families with at least one member in the military.

Obama, 47, an Illinois senator who would be the first black president, wins nine of every 10 black voters and solid majorities of Hispanics, Catholics and Jewish voters.

Zogby said McCain has been stuck at about 44 percent in more than a week of polling. Obama has lingered at about 48 percent for most of the week, hitting 49 percent twice but never breaking 50 percent.

The poll, conducted Saturday through Tuesday, showed independent Ralph Nader with 2 percent. Libertarian Bob Barr registered 1 percent.

Four percent of voters said they were still undecided.

The rolling tracking poll surveyed 1,210 likely voters in the presidential election. In a tracking poll, the most recent day’s results are added while the oldest day’s results are dropped in an effort to track changing momentum.

McCain and Obama are battling for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

(Editing by Eric Beech)


Poll: Obama leads in 3 of 4 key Bush counties

October 14, 2008

Alexander Burns 

Barack Obama has erased traditional Republican advantages in four key bellwether counties that President George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey. Each county is critical to the outcome in the battleground state where it is located.

In Reno, Nevada’s Washoe County, Obama leads McCain by a 46-45 percent margin, with six percent undecided. Obama posts a wider 50-44 percent lead with five percent undecided in Raleigh, North Carolina’s Wake County, and another 6-point lead in Hillsborough County, Fla., where Tampa is located. There, he edges McCain 47-41 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

Among the four counties tested, McCain leads in only one: Jefferson County, Colo., a populous Denver suburb. McCain is ahead there by a margin of 45-43 percent, with eight percent undecided.

At first glance, these Politico/InsiderAdvantage numbers might not look so troubling for McCain, who trailed Obama by 10 points in an ABC/Washington Post national survey, released Monday.

But these four counties are crucial battlegrounds in four of the most competitive states in the presidential race. In recent years, the Republican path to the White House has run through these areas.

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Obama Up by 10 Points as McCain Favorability Ratings Fall

October 13, 2008

By Anne E. Kornblut and Jon Cohen
The Washington Post

With just over three weeks until Election Day, the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories, with Sen. Barack Obama gaining momentum and Sen. John McCain stalled or losing ground on a range of issues and personal traits, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Overall, Obama is leading 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, and for the first time in the general-election campaign, voters gave the Democrat a clear edge on tax policy and providing strong leadership.

McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too “risky” or too “liberal.” Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain’s supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention.

Conversely, Obama’s pitch to the middle class on taxes is beginning to sink in; nearly as many said they think their taxes would go up under a McCain administration as under an Obama presidency, and more see their burdens easing with the Democrat in the White House.

The poll was conducted after Tuesday night’s debate, which most voters said did not sway their opinions much. Still, voters’ impressions of Obama are up, and views of McCain have slipped.

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