PRINCETON, NJ — In the week after the Republican National Convention, John McCain led Barack Obama 47% to 45% among registered voters nationwide. Then the financial crisis emerged as a major issue, and Obama quickly took the lead. In the most recent full week of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data (Oct. 6-12), that lead has expanded to 10 percentage points.
These weekly averages are based on interviews with roughly 6,400 registered voters conducted each Monday through Sunday, compiled from Gallup Poll Daily tracking. These large samples allow for a stable and in-depth look at how voter subgroup preferences have changed.
With only a few exceptions, most voter subgroups have shifted in Obama’s direction since mid-September, about the time that the economic crisis came to dominate the news headlines. The following outlines some of the more notable shifts among voter subgroups.
Women, who had been strong supporters of Obama for much of the campaign, quickly returned to the Democratic fold after they had moved more toward McCain after the Republican convention in early September. Women have supported Obama by an average of 53% to 39% over the last four weeks.
As recently as the week of Sept. 29-Oct. 5, men continued to show a preference for McCain, but in the last week, Obama has gained the lead among men, 49% to 44%. Even with that recent movement among men, the data continue to reflect a gender gap, with women significantly more likely than men to support the Democratic nominee.