By Toshinao Ishii
Yomiuri Shimbun
January 25, 2008
The military balance between China and Taiwan is turning in China’s favor due to its huge defense spending that showed double-digit growth for the nine consecutive years from 1989.
Taiwan is said to have superiority over China in maritime and air force strength. But China has built up its naval force remarkably in recent years.
According to the defense white paper for 2007, China possesses 70 frigates and destroyers as against 30 held by Taiwan. China overwhelms Taiwan in the possession of submarines 60 to four. China’s marine research vessels and submarines are stepping up their activities in the waters off eastern Taiwan.
China’s air force also has been active in the airspace above the Taiwan Strait.
“Chinese warplanes have been flying into the airspace over the Taiwan Strait frequently and their flight technique has improved,” a high-ranking Taiwan Air Force officer said.
Taiwan has deployed F-16 and Mirage aircraft as its mainstay fighter jets. China, on the other hand, announced last January a plan to deploy self-developed J-10 fighter jets, which are said to have capabilities matching those of F-16s.
China has deployed 1,328 ballistic missiles targeted at Taiwan, about seven times more than in 2000, when the administration of President Chen Sui-ban was inaugurated in Taiwan. Taiwan, on the other hand, has deployed only three sets of Patriot surface-to-air guided missiles (PAC-2) in the surburbs of Taipei and elsewhere. China successfully conducted an anti-satellite test last year, destroying a satellite with a missile .
As a counterbalance to China’s military arsenal, Taiwan’s military wants to possess PAC-3 missiles, P-3C antisubmarine patrol planes and diesel-powered submarines, which the U.S. administration of President George W. Bush decided to sell to Taiwan in 2001.
But the deals did not make any progress because deliberations on budgetary appropriations made little headway in Taiwan’s parliament due to dissent by opposition parties. Appropriations for the purchase of P-3Cs and submarine research costs were approved by the parliament in June. Taipei has sought to purchase 66 modified F-16s, but Washington has not complied with the request as it has grown increasingly distrustful of the Chen administration.
As a deterrent to China, Taiwan has secretly developed a Hsiung Feng [Brave Wind] 2-E cruise missile with a range that covers Shanghai and Hong Kong. But Taipei has refrained from disclosing its deployment “probably due to the pressure from Washington, which does not want to provoke Beijing because it is an offensive-type weapon,” an expert on military affairs said.
A crisis occurred in the Taiwan Strait just before the 1996 presidential election in Taiwan, when China test-fired missiles in waters near Taiwan and the United States responded by swiftly dispatching two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait.
With Taiwan’s presidential election set for March, however, China has not shown any sign of military threats against Taiwan in recent months. This is because Beijing learned a lesson from the previous experience that such a provocation will draw criticism from voters in Taiwan and backfire in the election.
Taiwan’s former Defense Vice Minister Lin Chong-pin ruled out the possibility of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, saying, “Military tension will not heighten as Beijing and Washington have close contacts.”
